SochBichar

Economic Bullshit (URDU)

Anjum was upset about the recent spate of very optimistic articles in Wall Street Journal and other mainstream media that talked about the next land of opportunity called Pakistan. He wrote a sharply critical piece in Dawn entitled "Economic Bullshit" talking about reality and such strange (possibly bought) journalism. Perhaps this is why President Trump talks of “fake media.”

Interestingly enough, while media is turning positive, the IMF and the ADB have issued a few warning statements talking about lack of reform and possible brewing challenges.

It is disturbing when analysts and so called experts appear whimsical and inconsistent in their projections, switching from making warnings to being cheerleaders frequently. It undermines confidence in policy, the role of experts and the economy. 

In this episode, we discuss this issue and how these analyses are made, their use of data and evidence.

Economics of the Trump phenomenon (URDU

Anjum is very concerned about the rise of Trump and what it means for the world. So, we took up this subject to discuss the new interplay of globalization and the re-emergence of nationalism.

 Interesting and thought provoking discussion if you want to learn about emerging economic issues. 

The curious case of Reqo Diq (URDU)

Reqo DIq has appeared in the news yet again.  This project has been in process for the last 18 years at least. It has had several twists and turns with several renewals, contractors changing hands, and little government inquiry or information of the decision-making process. The media turns its attention to it only when some major news breaks. These is no investigative journalist who knows anything about this project.

The way our media is structured few anchors as well as writers are dedicated journalists so information on a complex subject as Reqo Diq is very hard to get.  In any case mining contracts are not easy to understand. Nor are mining companies saints. Their stories of pillage of underdeveloped countries are legend now with many movies reporting on them.

Recently, Pakistan government lost their battle against Barrick the mining company involved in Reqo Diq.  Damages to Pakistan will now follow.

Several anchors rushed to talk say Pakistan should award the mining company the lease on a huge mining tract without a fight. Their reporting was very inaccurate. Clearly, they knew little about the case. 

In this episode, we talk to Samar Mubarakmand who is our world-famous nuclear scientist. Samar was also a member of the Planning commission who dealt with Reqo DIq. He has followed the case, even appeared in arbitrations and the supreme court (where the mining company claim was rejected).

While Samar Mubarakmand role in the case has been controversial in the media, we must recognize his competence and his knowledge of Reqo Diq and listen to the facts laid out by him carefully. 

I would urge my media friends to listen to this episode carefully understand the facts and then make up their mind. Rejecting our own knowledgeable people is not a sign of a developing society.

Local government (ENGLISH)

Local governments are an important issue that Pakistan is struggling with.

Today we talk to Mayraj Fahim an international lawyer specializing in cities and local government practices around the world. 

We discuss local government experiences in history and around the world.

We also discuss local government issues in Pakistan.

University and Research Culture in US (URDU)

Ammar Malik is a recent PhD from GMU and Naveed Iftekhar after many years of working with Min Fin in Pakistan in now in a PhD program in University of Delaware.  

We had a great conversation on how students from countries like Pakistan should approach studying abroad especially in the US. 

They discussed

• what it is they gained from their stay in US university.
• How to get the best out of university in the US.
• How to take advantage of what is offered here.

The important issue of university and research culture came up. Inevitably it led to a contrast with university culture in Pakistan and some discussion on how things could be improved. 

This is an important podcast for all in universities to listen to. 

Climate Change (URDU)

We take up this important subject with Adil Najam Who you have met before. Adil is the Dean of Pardee School in Boston University.  

Fascinating discussion. 

Adil framed the debate very well examining technical and economic issues. He also discussed why the dialog has turned antagonistic and political.

Yet the fact is climate change is real.

We discussed solutions to the problem most of which are at the global level.

However, all countries must however respond to the challenges presented by climate change. And those responses may not be simple but will require a lot of thought as well as research.

So, do listen and learn. Lots of ideas. 

 

Is the Census being done Right? (URDU)

Dr. Zahid Asghar of Quaid i Azam University talks to us about the Census. 

Why doesnt it happen on time?

Why is it necessary?

What is the coverage? 

Is all information being collected?

What are the definitional and statistical issues?  

 

Getting Policy Right- a proposal (ENGLISH)

Khalid Malik who you met when discussing Chinese growth is back with a proposal that could help develop policy ownership for equtiable development. 

Listen to it to understand how better policy can be made and owned in Pakistan. 

He draws on his extensive development experience to put develop ideas for development and then suggests an approach on how to adopt them.

An absoltuely 'must listen' to those itnerested in debate.

 

Social Entrepreneurship, Philanthropy and the Aman Foundation (English)

Foundations and social entrepreneurship are very important methods by which wealthy individuals give back to society. 

In Pakistan, there are several NGOs which are very vocal about social policy. However, most of these are funded by donors following mostly international agendas. 

In Pakistan, relatively few independent foundations have been set up. Just as most businesses are family-run, wealthy families prefer to run their social ventures (eg., hospitals, schools and universities) as family ventures.

Arif Naqvi has achieved an enviable position in the financial world. He has one of the largest Private Equity Fund in the Middle East with well over 10 billion under Fund Management. He is now among the wealthiest Pakistanis in the world.

But what is more admirable is that he and his wife Fayeza Naqvi have set up Aman Foundation in Karachi. This is an important first in Pakistan for 4 reasons

1. They have put in $100 million of their personal money into the foundation which I think is the largest single donation made by any individual in Pakistan.
2. They are also running it with professional management and not as a family venture.
3. They are operating it as social entrepreneurship venture.
4. They are trying to make it a platform for other foundations to join them. (Gates Foundation has already initiated work with them)

In this episode, we talk to the CEO, Malik Ahmed Jalal who has a an excellent financial markets background, including being a veteran of Goldman Sachs.  

While Jalal informs us of the conceptual foundations of the Aman foundation, its operations and achievements and its plans, what would probably be most interesting to the audience here is that they would like economists/social scientists to help them improve their working with research. 

So, listen to this and see if you are interested in researching how health and education can be delivered through social entrepreneurship. 

 

"Law and Economics" and Pakistan (English)

 

 

The importance of institutions to economic development and growth. What is needed now is far more research and debate on what sort of institutional reform is required to achieve Pakistan's desired growth acceleration and development.

This is an initial podcast in the subject of law and economics and the implications of this subject on the required institutional development.

Hopefully this will spark a new area of research.

Debt, Austerity and Taxes (English)

Every few days we have a conference on debt, taxes or stabilization.  Pakistan seems to be obsessed with stabilization and collecting more taxes even if it means killing growth.  And we have killed our growth and productivity potential through this discourse.

Sadly, this analysis has been inspired by donor funding which has diverted all of Pakistan intellect to thinking only revenues and poor quality fiscal adjustment a clear path to low growth and productivity. This is what is called austerity in the West. 

Research and debate in Pakistan is funded in this direction.  Very little research is done on growth and reform. Nor are there any conferences on that subject.  Pakistani intellect is incapable of challenging the austerity narrative of donors.

Here I argue for growth and against austerity and hope more of you will review this topic and discuss it.

Pakistan needs to change its strategy from giving excessive weight to stabilization through excessive taxation and poor choices in fiscal correction. Giving priority to growth will lead to wiser choices.

It is time that we started looking at avenues for enhancing our growth through reform. That is the only way of achieving a sustainable and quality stabilization. 

 

Pakistan's Economic Narrative and Policy (ENGLISH)

“Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back” John Maynard Keynes.

 

Let us look at the prevailing economic narrative and see if we are following some 'academic scribbler of the past?"

 

What is the prevailing economic narrative of Pakistan?

Is it consistent with our needs?

Is it based on solid foundations of modern thought?

Why don't we have an honest debate on it?

Is this economic narrative leading to bad policy choices?

Is this the reason why progress eludes us?

Understanding Policy (ENGLISH)

I find that the term policy is loosely used in Pakistan. Economists and policy analysts need to understand what policy is?

 

How it is distinguished from programs and projects?

How it is made?

How implemented?

 

Here I take an initial stab at it. Hope to keep revisit this topic in the future.

 

Your thoughts comments and questions will be very helpful 

What Kind of Planning do we need or should we do away with it? (ENGLISH)

Kahlid Ikram who worked in the Pakistan Planning Commission in its glory days and then went on to important assignments in the world Bank is one of Pakistan's finest economists. He talks to us about Planning and economic policy in Pakistan?

 

We discuss

 

Is there a need for a Planning commission? Should countries plan anymore?

What role can policy play in growth?

Does good policy require a cerebral and thinking government?

The current 'hardware only' policy vis a vis the 'priority to software' approach of the FEG?

How the PC lost its important role as well as all its human capital in the 70s?

 

This should be of great interest to people thinking of economic policy in Pakistan. 

Enjoy! Keep the debate going. Send us your comments and thoughts

  

Understanding Chinese Growth and drawing lessons (ENGLISH)

Khalid Malik has written a book on Chinese growth: "why has China grown so fast for so long?". As UNDP  Director he has lived in China for a long time and knows China well. 

In this fascinating discussion we learn the answer to the question.

 

Khalid argues:

 

The key to development is structural transformation that Mao and then Deng achieved. 

They created a learning and competent state capable of leading development

Chinese society has been transformed to be a learning society

Reform is a continuous and ongoing process in China not a check list given by a donor and implemented once. 

Reform process incentivized innovation and allowed for learning from mistakes. 

They maintained an undervalued exchange rate and pushed for exports in an open economy context. 

 

We also draw some lessons from China. 

 

You will enjoy this podcast.

 

Do look into Khalid's recommendation of a movie that you could see and discuss.  

 

Candles in the dark (ENGLISH)

Economics has been called the 'dismal science". 

Too often people especially in Pakistan accuse us of being pessimistic. 

To counter that we have an optimistic story today. Mahmood Ayub a leading economist from eh World Bank and Turab Husain the Chair of the Economics Department of LUNS have combined to write a book called "Candles in the Dark'--a book about "success stories" in Pakistan. They review 9 key organizations that they call successes in Pakitan to draw lessons on what it is that makes a success.  

Consider:

Are these organizations truly a success or a flash in the pan?

Are these candles lily to be scaled up to daylight everywhere? 

Could they be political accidents in an otherwise society where the norm is institutional collapse?  

Will these candles flicker out leave us in darkness? 

Will they affect society at large or only small segments in big cities?

The study is commendable and reaches conclusions that are in keeping with much research into organizational institutional development. And the authors have done fine work to establish that the key to good governance is DECENTRALIZE, PROFESSIONALIZE, AUTONOMIZE AND MONETIZE INCENTIVES (NO PERKS, NO PLOTS).

Very interesting discussion.

And of course good book recommendations.  

Disagreements: Difference between growth and development (URDU)

Anjum and Nadeem disagree on differences between growth and development. This is in response to our assessment where we felt hat basic concepts needed to be discussed. We hope this helps

We discuss what is economic growth and development. 

Do the two differ or are they interrelated? 

Can we have growth without development? Is it sustainable? 

Please post your comments on 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/SochBichar/

DISCUSS!

Disagreements: An assessment of Soch Bichar (URDU)

Anjum and Nadeem disagree on strategy and impact of Soch Bichar. 

I am not going to tell u what we discussed here. 

Please listen and comment on

 https://www.facebook.com/groups/SochBichar/

You should all join this group and discuss ideas or else there is no point in learning. 

Could language may be an important issue in social science research and policy? (URDU)

Haris Gazdar is a "thought entrepreneur." He and his colleagues have developed an important research enterprise called "Collective for Social Science Research." 

In recent research he has been intrigued by the issue of researching social science in English while the society thinks in another language. He feels it may be important to understand the disconnect between research and policy. Language and its accompanying idiom may be bigger barrier than we often think about. So here is a thoughtful dialog on the the important issue of language and how we think. 

 Issues discussed are:

If local languages were used for social science research, policy issues would be better understood and communicated.

Even social scientists might understand society better without a language divide. 

Would language be less of an issue if there was local government?

Does language inhibit social science thinking among society and policymakers or are social scientists finding another excuse? 

Has an ample body of learning been developed in social science in English or has language been a barrier?

All Pakistani recognize the importance of this issue. Listen and make up your mind what your view is. 

And of course, see what Haris recommends for you to read to expand your knowledge of development economics and policy.   

Pakistan Economy Resilient Despite Policy Issues (ENGLISH)

Shahid Javed Burki is a well know Pakistani economist who rose to be World Bank Vice president. He also served as interim Finance Minister for Moeen Qureshi in the nineties. He has written extensively on Pakitan and has propound the thesis of Paksitan being  resilient economy in the midst of a "graveyard of institutions".

I find him to be best positioned to talk about the economic history of Paksitan.  So if you are interested in learning about how policy was made in Paksitan or how Paksitan dealt with the many crises in its history, listen to this. We discuss:

The development of the Paksitan state in very difficult circumstances.

The genesis of India Pakistan economic conflict.

The various crises faced by Paksitan and were policy responses adequate? 

The decline of institutions in Pakistan

It is an important podcast for all students and people interested in economics of Paksitan. 

You will also get reading recommendations by Mr. Burki and an idea of what he is reading.